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Is collecting going to reach a cap at some point?

Apr 20 at 10:16:51 PM
Andy_Bogomil (100)
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I'm not trying to make this a bubble burst thread... just curious if/when there will ever be a cap on the rarest of games. It would make sense that any game released in this day and age will never be as sought after or go as much as the rare NES carts or even some SNES. I just sold a CIB SNES game for a very high amount of money and am curious if there will be a point where people will refuse to pay a certain amount for a game regardless of rarity etc. Hell, I wasn't even that interested to sell, but it was one of those offers that was too good to refuse. Not that I'll ever regret selling, but it got me thinking, will this game be worth significantly more in 20 years or will it be roughly the same with the biggest increase already far behind us.

I know there has been talk about the latest NWC that popped up and SE seemly cooling a bit from its previous sales, so are these beginning to cap? Will the games that now go for $1000+ eventually climb above $5000? $10000? What do you think SE or NWC will be worth in 10, 30, or 50 years from now?


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Edited: 04/20/2017 at 10:17 PM by Andy_Bogomil

Apr 20 at 10:21:05 PM
Brachabre (7)
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What goes up, must come down  

Apr 20 at 10:22:33 PM
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empire (55)
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Nah. It's not like with cars where they're timeless. Games for systems like the NES will mostly appeal to those that were around when it was the latest and greatest.

Apr 20 at 10:29:10 PM
ne$_pimp (55)
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Prices will always fluctuate, so they can't be capped. They could peak and drop off but that doesn't mean they would not peak again.

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Apr 20 at 10:33:55 PM
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ALTQQ (53)
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We're gonna land these game prices on the moon! Then at least something would have landed there  

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Apr 20 at 10:42:16 PM
BiggerBluer (1)
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My question is: What future system will not be expensive to collect for? Like will we have a system that the rarest game has like 10,000 copies and is not hard to find? I guess only time will tell.

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Apr 20 at 10:44:46 PM
kamakaze_ekun (3)
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Nope prices are going to soar now thanks to this thread.

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Apr 20 at 10:50:03 PM
Alder (52)
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Originally posted by: BiggerBluer

My question is: What future system will not be expensive to collect for? Like will we have a system that the rarest game has like 10,000 copies and is not hard to find? I guess only time will tell.
My bet would be on Xbox 360, but I'm not sure about the 10,000 figure.

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Apr 20 at 10:50:39 PM
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Bronty (63)
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Originally posted by: Andy_Bogomil

I'm not trying to make this a bubble burst thread... just curious if/when there will ever be a cap on the rarest of games. It would make sense that any game released in this day and age will never be as sought after or go as much as the rare NES carts or even some SNES. I just sold a CIB SNES game for a very high amount of money and am curious if there will be a point where people will refuse to pay a certain amount for a game regardless of rarity etc. Hell, I wasn't even that interested to sell, but it was one of those offers that was too good to refuse. Not that I'll ever regret selling, but it got me thinking, will this game be worth significantly more in 20 years or will it be roughly the same with the biggest increase already far behind us.

I know there has been talk about the latest NWC that popped up and SE seemly cooling a bit from its previous sales, so are these beginning to cap? Will the games that now go for $1000+ eventually climb above $5000? $10000? What do you think SE or NWC will be worth in 10, 30, or 50 years from now?
 

Price caps are only in one's mind.  

Barry Beck was one of the biggest early comic collectors and his thought in the 70s was that Action 1, detective 27 etc could never be worth "more than a good reliable used car" because at that price point "real life" things can be done with the money.

Well, there is no cap, Barry.   Those comics soared past the cost of a used car because the buyers became people who did not need cars.    Prices depend on two things:  supply and demand.   Nothing else.   Now the mind has a natural tendency to want to benchmark and its for that reason that people lose their shit over new prices.

But the benchmarks are constructs in your mind and not reflective of the market because new buyers enter the market with no such preconstructed benchmarks.

They are a blank slate and the new guy will cheerily pay what to the old guy seems like an outrageous price.

-------------------------

WTB Cdn sealed black boxes, sealed Cdn first party titles.    I.e. the "mattel" Cdn boxes with both french and english.   Mainly black boxes, zelda, link, and tyson, but let me know what you have.    I am interested in anything I don't already have!


Apr 20 at 10:53:03 PM
BiggerBluer (1)
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Originally posted by: Alder
 
Originally posted by: BiggerBluer

My question is: What future system will not be expensive to collect for? Like will we have a system that the rarest game has like 10,000 copies and is not hard to find? I guess only time will tell.
My bet would be on Xbox 360, but I'm not sure about the 10,000 figure.
I was thinking the same as well. I was just guesing on the number but I would like to hope that in the future we wont have consoles that have only 200 or so production runs of games.

 

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Apr 20 at 10:57:04 PM
Tulpa (2)
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The problem with the more recent consoles is that a lot of low production number shovelware is often released.

Apr 20 at 10:57:47 PM
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MrWunderful (254)
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inflation + time x desire + hype(squared) = expensive

Apr 20 at 11:02:54 PM
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Bronty (63)
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haahaha

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WTB Cdn sealed black boxes, sealed Cdn first party titles.    I.e. the "mattel" Cdn boxes with both french and english.   Mainly black boxes, zelda, link, and tyson, but let me know what you have.    I am interested in anything I don't already have!


Apr 20 at 11:14:27 PM
Andy_Bogomil (100)
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Originally posted by: Bronty
 
Originally posted by: Andy_Bogomil

I'm not trying to make this a bubble burst thread... just curious if/when there will ever be a cap on the rarest of games. It would make sense that any game released in this day and age will never be as sought after or go as much as the rare NES carts or even some SNES. I just sold a CIB SNES game for a very high amount of money and am curious if there will be a point where people will refuse to pay a certain amount for a game regardless of rarity etc. Hell, I wasn't even that interested to sell, but it was one of those offers that was too good to refuse. Not that I'll ever regret selling, but it got me thinking, will this game be worth significantly more in 20 years or will it be roughly the same with the biggest increase already far behind us.

I know there has been talk about the latest NWC that popped up and SE seemly cooling a bit from its previous sales, so are these beginning to cap? Will the games that now go for $1000+ eventually climb above $5000? $10000? What do you think SE or NWC will be worth in 10, 30, or 50 years from now?
 

Price caps are only in one's mind.  

Barry Beck was one of the biggest early comic collectors and his thought in the 70s was that Action 1, detective 27 etc could never be worth "more than a good reliable used car" because at that price point "real life" things can be done with the money.

Well, there is no cap, Barry.   Those comics soared past the cost of a used car because the buyers became people who did not need cars.    Prices depend on two things:  supply and demand.   Nothing else.   Now the mind has a natural tendency to want to benchmark and its for that reason that people lose their shit over new prices.

But the benchmarks are constructs in your mind and not reflective of the market because new buyers enter the market with no such preconstructed benchmarks.

They are a blank slate and the new guy will cheerily pay what to the old guy seems like an outrageous price.


So you think the same will apply to video games? Comic books are quite a bit older. I agree that caps are relative to each person, but is there a point where it just becomes unrealistic for everyone except the very few who have infinite money? What do you think a CIB SE would be worth in 50 years?

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Apr 20 at 11:17:17 PM
D~Funk (66)
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Apr 21 at 1:50:18 AM
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Bronty (63)
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Originally posted by: Andy_Bogomil
 
Originally posted by: Bronty
 
Originally posted by: Andy_Bogomil

I'm not trying to make this a bubble burst thread... just curious if/when there will ever be a cap on the rarest of games. It would make sense that any game released in this day and age will never be as sought after or go as much as the rare NES carts or even some SNES. I just sold a CIB SNES game for a very high amount of money and am curious if there will be a point where people will refuse to pay a certain amount for a game regardless of rarity etc. Hell, I wasn't even that interested to sell, but it was one of those offers that was too good to refuse. Not that I'll ever regret selling, but it got me thinking, will this game be worth significantly more in 20 years or will it be roughly the same with the biggest increase already far behind us.

I know there has been talk about the latest NWC that popped up and SE seemly cooling a bit from its previous sales, so are these beginning to cap? Will the games that now go for $1000+ eventually climb above $5000? $10000? What do you think SE or NWC will be worth in 10, 30, or 50 years from now?
 

Price caps are only in one's mind.  

Barry Beck was one of the biggest early comic collectors and his thought in the 70s was that Action 1, detective 27 etc could never be worth "more than a good reliable used car" because at that price point "real life" things can be done with the money.

Well, there is no cap, Barry.   Those comics soared past the cost of a used car because the buyers became people who did not need cars.    Prices depend on two things:  supply and demand.   Nothing else.   Now the mind has a natural tendency to want to benchmark and its for that reason that people lose their shit over new prices.

But the benchmarks are constructs in your mind and not reflective of the market because new buyers enter the market with no such preconstructed benchmarks.

They are a blank slate and the new guy will cheerily pay what to the old guy seems like an outrageous price.


So you think the same will apply to video games? Comic books are quite a bit older. I agree that caps are relative to each person, but is there a point where it just becomes unrealistic for everyone except the very few who have infinite money? What do you think a CIB SE would be worth in 50 years?

I'm not making predictions necessarily, I'm just saying anything is possible if people continue to want the stuff.   50 years out is just way too long for me to even guess though  
 

-------------------------

WTB Cdn sealed black boxes, sealed Cdn first party titles.    I.e. the "mattel" Cdn boxes with both french and english.   Mainly black boxes, zelda, link, and tyson, but let me know what you have.    I am interested in anything I don't already have!



Edited: 04/21/2017 at 01:56 AM by Bronty

Apr 21 at 2:50:25 AM
skinnygrinny (25)
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Originally posted by: Bronty
 
Originally posted by: Andy_Bogomil

I'm not trying to make this a bubble burst thread... just curious if/when there will ever be a cap on the rarest of games. It would make sense that any game released in this day and age will never be as sought after or go as much as the rare NES carts or even some SNES. I just sold a CIB SNES game for a very high amount of money and am curious if there will be a point where people will refuse to pay a certain amount for a game regardless of rarity etc. Hell, I wasn't even that interested to sell, but it was one of those offers that was too good to refuse. Not that I'll ever regret selling, but it got me thinking, will this game be worth significantly more in 20 years or will it be roughly the same with the biggest increase already far behind us.

I know there has been talk about the latest NWC that popped up and SE seemly cooling a bit from its previous sales, so are these beginning to cap? Will the games that now go for $1000+ eventually climb above $5000? $10000? What do you think SE or NWC will be worth in 10, 30, or 50 years from now?
 

Price caps are only in one's mind.  

Barry Beck was one of the biggest early comic collectors and his thought in the 70s was that Action 1, detective 27 etc could never be worth "more than a good reliable used car" because at that price point "real life" things can be done with the money.

Well, there is no cap, Barry.   Those comics soared past the cost of a used car because the buyers became people who did not need cars.    Prices depend on two things:  supply and demand.   Nothing else.   Now the mind has a natural tendency to want to benchmark and its for that reason that people lose their shit over new prices.

But the benchmarks are constructs in your mind and not reflective of the market because new buyers enter the market with no such preconstructed benchmarks.

They are a blank slate and the new guy will cheerily pay what to the old guy seems like an outrageous price.

the comic book guy had a decent idea. but if there is only 500 se carts and 30,000 people want one and out of the 30,000 that want one 1,000 of them are so rich they dont know what physical money looks like... 29,000 people wont even be close to being able to pay what the 1,000 fighting for one will be willing to.... is that even a real thing or did i just make that up? 

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Apr 21 at 3:21:46 AM
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Bronty (63)
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you're exactly right on that.   And the numbers don't have to be so large!   Same result if ten make it to market a year, and 12 guys with money want one every year.

im actually kinda surprised the hobby doesn't have any guys that are rich rich as of now.    There are well off guys but the wall st hedge fund manager or the stinking rich (9 figure net worth) businessman who is a real collector ?   Don't see em.    As high as those numbers are, other hobbies have those guys.   Maybe there needs to be more expensive stuff to buy for those guys to even bother

-------------------------

WTB Cdn sealed black boxes, sealed Cdn first party titles.    I.e. the "mattel" Cdn boxes with both french and english.   Mainly black boxes, zelda, link, and tyson, but let me know what you have.    I am interested in anything I don't already have!



Edited: 04/21/2017 at 04:02 AM by Bronty

Apr 21 at 4:05:04 AM
KeenBlade (10)
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What I've been wondering is how repros and emulation will affect the market. Repros add an element of risk and are gradually flooding the market- will that make rarer titles all the more valuable? Or will it drive potential buyers away in disgust, shrinking the market? Will emulation interest newcomers in the hobby, or will it make them indifferent, since they can play pretty much everything on a laptop?

Then again, digital comics and trade paperbacks hardly destroyed vintage comics, and most pirates were never going to pay for the authentic experience anyway.

Apr 21 at 4:37:30 AM
Archon (16)
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Originally posted by: Bronty

you're exactly right on that.   And the numbers don't have to be so large!   Same result if ten make it to market a year, and 12 guys with money want one every year.

im actually kinda surprised the hobby doesn't have any guys that are rich rich as of now.    There are well off guys but the wall st hedge fund manager or the stinking rich (9 figure net worth) businessman who is a real collector ?   Don't see em.    As high as those numbers are, other hobbies have those guys.   Maybe there needs to be more expensive stuff to buy for those guys to even bother





Only one i know of is the guy that founded occulus. Hes a bajillionare collector.

Apr 21 at 6:02:53 AM
kamakaze_ekun (3)
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Fools, these prices will never stop rising. Hurry we must buy up everything so we can live like kings.

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Apr 21 at 6:03:25 AM
Too Beaucoup (0)
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I don't think there will, necessarily, ever be a cap on the really rare titles. Games like Stadium Events, NWC, Little Samson, etc... will always be worth money and likely increase in price, to those top-tier collectors. But, I do think we're gonna start hitting the ceiling on a lot of other titles. Just for example, take a few moderately priced games, something like Sunset Riders, Turtles in Time, King of Dragons, Knights of the Round, etc... Think about those $50-$100 dollar titles... I don't ever see those games being $200+ dollar titles. Eventually, things are going to peak. I think we're already kind of seeing it. Eventually, people our ages are going to finish collecting or decide they don't care anymore. And yes, there will always be interest in retro games, but it just can't possibly keep going higher, at least not the majority of games. Video games are nothing like baseball cards, comics, classic cars, etc... Wall street bankers and high rollers are usually spending big money on stuff like that. None of them are out trying to gobble up video game libraries, hoping that the value increases times ten.

It's similar to something like vinyl. There was a huge boom in vinyl, 10-15 years ago because all of the people who grew up with it wanted their collections back. A lot of records which actually sold a lot of copies and had plenty of them manufactured were selling for pretty decent money, despite being extremely common. Now, you can walk into any vinyl store and buy 90% of their titles for a fraction of what they were selling for 10+ years ago, unless it's something really, really rare. Of course, there are still people interested in vinyl, but like any hobby, when the age range of people who grew up with it start to finish their collections, get their fix, or get out of collecting and decide they don't care anymore, prices stabilize and or drop a bit. I'm not psychic, so I can't say what's going to happen with video games, but I can't see it rising and staying hot forever. Same thing happened with baseball cards and comics. They were huge through the 60's, 70's and most of the 80's, so then, a lot of people gobbled up comics and baseball cards all through the 90's and then those markets just crashed. And now days, those hobbies aren't anything like they were 20-30+ years ago. Sure, there's still interest, but nothing like there used to be.

I only see video games sliding down, other than those ultra-rare titles. Especially, as we move further with technology. A majority of people would rather emulate or own games on the virtual consoles or buy crap like the NES mini and such. People like us at NintendoAge are the minority. Most people aren't keeping multiple retro consoles around with a CRT or Framemeister for HDTVs. And even if Joe Six-Pack decides to get ambitious and hook his old consoles up to his HDTV, he's probably going to decide it looks like complete ass and will probably just go the emulation route anyway. So will games and the hobby always hold value to us and the community here? Of course. But, there's still plenty of casuals and tourists out there buying retro because it's hot right now and that's keeping prices steady. Give it a few years and those suckers will get weeded out and the fire will die down a bit. I'm, by no means, saying everything is gonna come crashing down and we'll be buying 99 cent NES carts again. But, it's not gonna ride this high wave forever. It's just not. No market does.

Apr 21 at 6:12:31 AM
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Vectrex28 (116)
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Looks like it's this time of the week again! Who's in the mood for some Bubble Bobble?  

Apr 21 at 6:21:01 AM
AC Skywalker (17)
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I think Too beaucoup's post above nails it. You have already seen a lot of games stabilize in price. I think sites like pricecharting and GVN are helping because people have more data available for prices. "Average price of Dracula X is $180, forget this eBay auction, I'm not paying $220", and so on.

Also people will lose interest like anything else. Truly rare games will hold value because there are enough of us that will stick around for a while and still want those games.

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Apr 21 at 6:36:21 AM
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jonebone (511)
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I don't have time to elaborate but I have also noticed the power shift. The power shift is real and it is happening now.

What used to happen:
Rare titles went through droughts, were listed higher and higher at increasing BINs and typically bought. Prices climbed. There was legitimate pent up demand for many titles.

What is happening now:
Rare titles are sitting at BINs and stagnating. People aren't buying them, they are waiting for auctions. You can find practically any game you want available somewhere... for the right price. The sheer fact of it being available cause people to lose interest and not believe something is as rare people say it is.

I'm not speculating on price but I do think that supply has caught up to demand for the most part. There's a lot of people who want to be sellers now at current values and some of these buyers may be left with hot potatoes....

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