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Switch sales prediction thread How will it compare to Nintendo's previous consoles?

Jan 17 at 2:11:54 AM
scaryice (96)
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(scary ice) < Ridley Wrangler >
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Get your votes in now!


Edited: 01/17/2017 at 02:13 AM by scaryice

Jan 17 at 2:37:37 AM
Ouendan (1)
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(Go play Gun Nac right now!!) < Lolo Lord >
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it'll probably sell between 15-25 million.

Jan 17 at 2:51:52 AM
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KAMIKAWA (24)
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49.1-61.9 I'm thinking more along the lines if it as a portable. It'll be the only handheld on the market (eventually,) and it will be the 2nd console of most gamers home. It'll sell like hotcakes in Japan, drive Japanese devs to make games for it, indies will support it, and Nintendo will make excellent games for it. There will be luke warm 3rd party AAA studios support, a lot of B level cult classics. It will be the baby of the Vita and the 3DS. And it will have a large passionate following at the end of it's lifetime.

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Edited: 01/17/2017 at 02:56 AM by KAMIKAWA

Jan 17 at 3:26:10 AM
rcorporon (34)
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Sadly the stink of the Wii U will cling to the Switch and hold it back.

Toss in the bumbling Nintendo has done with some of the features of this system and it'll compound the issue.

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Jan 17 at 4:04:04 AM
Thunderblaze16 (75)
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That launch line up honestly has no appeal to me at all, apart from Bomberman I can wait for more upcoming titles.
Yeah, I have no interest in the Zelda game. I never really liked Zelda games to begin with.


As there sales go, they did better at marketing the Switch than they ever did with the Wii-U but that's it. I'd say it may sale around the same amount as the Wii U but MAYBE 2-3 million more this time.

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Jan 17 at 4:34:57 AM
Too Beaucoup (0)
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Originally posted by: rcorporon

Sadly the stink of the Wii U will cling to the Switch and hold it back.

Toss in the bumbling Nintendo has done with some of the features of this system and it'll compound the issue.

+1 to that. It's Nintendo so it'll sell, but I'm predicting a similar showing as the Wii-U, a few good Nintendo titles, garbage 3rd party support and mediocre sales. The tablet market is so over-saturated, it'll be a hard sell at $300 to anyone other than people like us. Of course, I hope I'm wrong, but I'm certainly not getting one at launch, after Nintendo's embarrassing support of the Wii-U.
 

Jan 17 at 4:37:02 AM
D~Funk (65)
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Originally posted by: KAMIKAWA

49.1-61.9 I'm thinking more along the lines if it as a portable. It'll be the only handheld on the market (eventually,) and it will be the 2nd console of most gamers home. It'll sell like hotcakes in Japan, drive Japanese devs to make games for it, indies will support it, and Nintendo will make excellent games for it. There will be luke warm 3rd party AAA studios support, a lot of B level cult classics. It will be the baby of the Vita and the 3DS. And it will have a large passionate following at the end of it's lifetime.



My thoughts exactly!  

Jan 17 at 7:10:07 AM
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jonebone (511)
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Interesting thread. I'm going with 21.7 to 32.9 million, between Gamecube and N64. Should be easy to beat the Wii U but I'm not sure of the success beyond that.

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Jan 17 at 9:47:45 AM
ZBomber (5)
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It'll beat the WiiU, in terms of launch sales and lifetime sales. But I'm not too optimistic beyond that. I can't see it passing 30 million.

Jan 17 at 9:50:22 AM
Hydrus (40)
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I think it's actually really hard to judge. I think it will do better than the Wii U, but I don't think it will sell extraordinarily well either. I say around N64 numbers. Maybe slightly higher. My guess is 40 million at the end of its life, but who knows. This thing could sell abominably or it could be a huge hit.

Jan 17 at 9:56:53 AM
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Paul (224)
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Between 21.7 million to 32.9 million if I have to guess.

Better than the Wiiu and Gamecube, but less than N64.

Jan 17 at 10:17:16 AM
fox (15)
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Motion controls are a dead end. The casuals who were on board for the wii are not coming back. They would be better off going back to the original pitch of a hybrid platform with multiple ways to play.

If this is the true heir to their portable empire than I expect 3ds numbers. If they announce 4ds or a dedicated portable next year than expect Wii U numbers.

Jan 17 at 10:33:59 AM
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arnpoly (75)
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Originally posted by: fox

If this is the true heir to their portable empire than I expect 3ds numbers. If they announce 4ds or a dedicated portable next year than expect Wii U numbers.

I think this is dead on.

I believe Nintendo saying that the Switch is not a 3DS replacement is the exact same thing as them saying the DS is not the successor to the GBA.  I fully expect this to start getting a lot of software that would have made its way to the 3DS instead.

My prediction is that the Switch will sell okay at first, eventually gaining steam over the long term.  I put it around 40 million or somewhere in the middle of Wii U and 3DS sales, but with the caveat that it could swing either way depending on Nintendo's long term strategy.
 

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Jan 17 at 11:31:51 AM
Thunderblaze16 (75)
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The handheld market is simply boring, there's no real competition, it's just Nintendo anyways.

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Jan 17 at 12:45:37 PM
americasteam7 (62)
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I think 30 million would be the ceiling of possibility. With how Nintendo botched the presentation, and how there is a definite lack of real 3rd party support and therefore a lack of games, I just don't see it doing too well. Supposedly the creator of the Borderlands franchise was in talks with Nintendo about bringing their next game, Borderlands 3, to the system and then Nintendo just stopped talking randomly. That's Nintendo. They are stubborn and half the time they are foolish. Every now and then they will come out with a huge hit like the wii, but the rest of the time they are so different in sometimes bad ways that sales are going to be low. N64, Gamecube, Wii U.

Basically the only thing you can count on selling well are the handhelds. One day I believe Nintendo will be a 3rd party company making games for Xbox and PS4 while still making awesome handhelds. And that is actually ok. I will buy the Switch and enjoy it and enjoy Zelda, but Nintendo always brings too many downsides to the table to entice a large crowd into buying one of their home consoles. In this case, it is lack of games just like the Wii U. This may be the last home console I buy from Nintendo.

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Jan 17 at 12:49:49 PM
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TheToxieRules (62)
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Depends on how many Switch copies of Zelda sell....

Jan 17 at 1:16:26 PM
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I'm predicting on the high side, 61.9 million+. You all seem to forget about a certain must-have... POKÉMON. While I don't have a problem with the price, once it drops $50 and the Switch Pokémon game comes out these are really going to sell like hot cakes.

But that is contingent on this actually being the Nintendo handheld replacement.

Jan 17 at 1:40:04 PM
LutherDestroysTheGond (59)
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I think it depends on the marketing, although I haven't seen a single commercial yet. They really dropped the ball on the marketing the Wii U IIRC. I don't remember a single commercial but remember tons of Wii commercials at launch. If they market it as the next Nintendo handheld (and drop the 3DS with no other sequel to it) that happens to be able to play on your TV, then I think it will do much better than marketing it as a home console that you take on the go.

I'm sure marketing will ramp up closer towards Holiday 2017 with Mario coming out and by then the hardcore fanboy/early adopter buyers will be out of the way. Then they can try to appeal to more the bro gamers, casuals, and parents.

Also, if there are main-series Pokemon games exclusive to the Switch, look out.

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Jan 17 at 2:19:57 PM
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mattbep (104)
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This is not a Nintendo handheld replacement. Their handheld draw has always been pocket sized games. This thing is enormous in comparison.

Jan 17 at 2:21:38 PM
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I really hope 40 million but it is a hard one to judge.

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Jan 17 at 4:19:12 PM
GreatGadon (3)
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I'll be positive. I think it will sell more then the Wii.

Jan 17 at 4:48:53 PM
Boosted52405 (444)
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I don't know, with 3DS consoles being sold out everywhere, I have a feeling the switch is meant to replace both the Wii U and the 3DS. Or, Nintendo is doing a voodoo mind trick to the customers by stopping production/delivery of 3DS's until Summer of 2017 to hype Switch. I haven't heard a single rumble directed towards a 4DS concept, but not deep in the news either. Just my take on it.

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Jan 17 at 5:01:23 PM
DefaultGen (21)
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I'm guessing between Wii U and Gamecube, but who knows. If it gets a huge software push it will be a hit. I think people are a lot more excited about the hardware than the Wii U, but there are currently almost no announced games to be excited for on the damn thing.

The DS has an awful lineup of games for the first year of its life, then it completely blew up a year or two later and got tons of support. I'm hoping the Switch goes down that path and not the "I only own one for the 1-2 games Nintendo makes a year" path.

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Edited: 01/17/2017 at 05:01 PM by DefaultGen

Jan 17 at 5:19:09 PM
DevinShidaker (0)
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I think it will do really well at launch, and anything after that really depends on the software coming out for the switch. With the NES Classic Edition, I think Nintendo really set themselves up for a huge preorder rush with the Switch. The Classic was next to impossible to get for most people unless they wanted to pay ridiculous scalper prices, so when preorders went live for the Switch, people jumped all over it so they wouldn't be put in that situation again. Everyone I know that wanted one was able to preorder at least one. I think that the big sales in the beginning will make a lot of developers say "well the numbers are there, let's make some games for this thing". On top of that, with the Switch possibly taking over Nintendo's portable market, I could see a lot more first party games coming out for this console than most of the other Nintendo consoles from this century. I could see that happening because instead of developing games for a mobile console or home console, all of their in house developers will be working on games for one system. At least that's what will happen if the 3DS is eventually phased out, which won't happen right away. I do think that they are going to have to drop the prices on their peripherals really quickly because I can't imagine ever paying 80 dollars for a controller that comes bundled with my console. Nintendo has something real special with the Switch, and I think if they play their cards right, it will be very successful.

Jan 17 at 5:26:39 PM
john (20)
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I'll guess 15 million. Suppose they support it a full 4-5 years instead of pulling out way early like Wii U and you've already got more sales. It won't sell in large numbers unless it's the surprise second coming of the Wii.

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